By Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, CFR

March 30, 2023 1:20 pm (EST)

Russia’s threat to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus has raised the specter of a new nuclear standoff with the United States and its allies in Europe. It also draws new attention to how such arms are deployed in NATO states.

What’s behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus?

The move that Putin announced in late March would be the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that Russia has stationed nuclear weapons beyond its own borders, and it raises the prospects for a renewed, destabilizing nuclear arms rivalry with the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies.

Continue reading Nuclear weapons in Europe: Mapping U.S. and Russian deployments →

The first international agreement to protect the world’s oceans aims to create “international parks” in the high seas.

By Jackie Gu, Reuters

PUBLISHED MARCH 30, 2023

After almost 20 years of negotiations, United Nations member countries have agreed upon an international treaty to protect oceans of the world that lie outside national borders.

These waters, known as “high seas,” occupy nearly two-thirds of the world’s oceans. Because they are considered international waters, they lie outside the jurisdiction of any state and have until now never been legally protected, meaning that the marine life in these areas has been under threat from a free-for-all of unregulated exploitation – including overfishing, pollution from ships and human-induced climate change.

Continue reading Changing Tides →

Daily News BriefApril 3, 2023

Top of the Agenda OPEC+ Announces Surprise Cuts to Global Oil Output International oil prices rose today (Bloomberg) after Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting nations announced plans to reduce output (AP) by 1.15 million barrels per day between May and the end of the year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners, collectively known as OPEC+, had not previously signaled plans to slash output. Additionally, OPEC+ member Russia extended its ongoing cut of five hundred thousand barrels per day through the end of the year. The White House called the cuts ill-advised and pledged to work with producers and consumers to bring oil prices down.  The oil producers’ announcement comes as Australia, the European Union, and Group of Seven (G7) countries try to enforce a global price cap on Russian oil. However, Japan negotiated an exemption from the cap due to its energy needs, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday.

Continue reading CFR – Daily News Brief April 3, 2023 →

The World This WeekMarch 31, 2023

The Putin-Xi Summit Reinforces Anti-U.S. Partnership Thomas Graham Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony at the Kremlin on March 21, 2023. (Alexey Maishev/Sputnik)The meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Moscow helped both give the impression of a united front, but underlying tensions were also discernible. Get the quick take

Continue reading CFR – The World This Week March 31, 2023 →

Daily News Brief March 30, 2023

Top of the Agenda EU Chief Calls for Europe to ‘De-Risk’ From China During a speech in Brussels today, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for the European Union (EU) to take a “bolder” stance (Politico) toward Beijing in response to China becoming “more repressive at home and more assertive abroad.” She said this would help Europe “de-risk” itself (Reuters) economically and diplomatically, but that economic decoupling from China is not possible. She also referred to the close relationship between China’s and Russia’s leaders and said China is responsible for advancing a “just peace” in Ukraine that includes the withdrawal of Russian forces. Von der Leyen will visit Beijing next week.  European leaders have diverged in recent months (FT) over their views on China. While the United States has hardened its own China policy through controls on tech exports, trade officials at the European Commission have studied the possibility of controls on outbound European investment.

Continue reading CFR – Daily News Brief, March 30, 2023 →

Daily News Brief March 28, 2023

Top of the Agenda British, German Tanks Reach Kyiv as Ukraine Prepares for Spring Offensive The first deliveries of British Challenger tanks and German Leopard 2 tanks reached the Ukrainian capital (FT), German and Ukrainian officials confirmed. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces completed training (The Guardian) in the United Kingdom on how to use the Challenger tanks. Poland sent tanks to Ukraine late last month, and Spain is expected to do so by the end of the week. Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive against invading Russian forces will depend (BBC) on continued weapons support from the West, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. He will give a virtual address today (AFP) to kick off U.S. President Joe Biden’s second annual Summit for Democracy.

Continue reading CFR: Daily News Brief, March 28, 2023 →

The Biden administration is inviting around 120 countries to join its Summit for Democracy next week, but two of its NATO allies aren’t getting a call.

Turkey and Hungary have been left off the invitation list for the major summit, which Team Biden bills as one of its hallmark foreign-policy initiatives, meant to shore up democracies worldwide and stanch the rise of autocracies.

Backsliding. The spurning of two NATO allies, confirmed by three U.S. officials who spoke to SitRep, reflects a mounting concern with the degree of democratic backsliding in Turkey and Hungary, even though Washington is relying on both to support the West’s strategy against Russia as the war in Ukraine rages on—and needs both to approve Finland and Sweden’s bids to join NATO as full-fledged allies.

Continue reading Summit for Democracy snubs for two troublesome U.S. allies →

Xi Jinping used the annual legislative session to lock in his tenure as president and reinforce China’s assertive foreign policy and the reemergence of its economy.

Article by Ian Johnson

March 17, 2023 4:05 pm (EST)

This month saw the Chinese rite of spring known as the lianghui, or “two sessions”: the annual meetings of the national advisory committee and the country’s parliament. Neither body holds much power, and it’s easy to write the whole exercise off as empty theater. Yet, public rituals are meant to deliver messages, and this year’s lianghui offered two important points: President Xi Jinping and his muscular foreign policy are here to stay, and China is back open for business after three years of fighting COVID-19—even if its return to growth is bolstered through unsustainable deficit spending.

Continue reading How to read Xi’s muscular message on China’s global role →

SÁNG ÁNH 25/03/2023 13:32 GMT+7

TTCT – Saudi Arabia làm lành với Iran mở ra hy vọng về một Trung Đông bớt đi những tang thương bom đạn.

4 h sáng 14-9-2019, quân Houthi (thân Iran) từ Yemen bắn qua Saudi 25 máy bay không người lái, có lẽ giá thành là 15.000 USD một chiếc, tức tổng trị giá 375.000 USD. 19 chiếc trúng đích là khu Nhà máy dầu Abqaiq-Khurais, làm tê liệt sản xuất trong hai tuần. 

Khu nhà máy này chiếm 1/2 sản xuất dầu của Saudi (mà dầu của Saudi thì chiếm 5% của thế giới) – khoảng 5,7 triệu thùng/ngày.

Cuộc tấn công khiến Saudi mất 365 triệu đô la một ngày với giá dầu lúc đó là 64 USD/thùng. Tuy dần dà cũng khắc phục được, thị trường chứng khoán Saudi mất ngay 40 tỉ USD. 

Continue reading Saudi Arabia và Iran: Bán anh em xa… →

By Catherine Thorbecke, CNN

Updated 5:12 PM EDT, Thu March 23, 2023

03:15New YorkCNN — 

In his first appearance before Congress on Thursday, TikTok CEO Shou Chew was grilled by lawmakers who expressed deep skepticism about his company’s attempts to protect US user data and ease concerns about its ties to China.

It was a rare chance for the public to hear from the Chew, who offers very few interviews. Yet his company’s app is among the most popular in America, with more than 150 million active users.

Here are the biggest takeaways from Thursday’s hearing.

Washington has already made up its mind about TikTok

The hearing, which lasted for more than five hours, kicked off with calls from a lawmaker to ban the app in the United States and remained combative throughout. It offered a vivid display of the bipartisan push to crack down on the popular short-form video app and the company’s uphill battle to improve relations with Washington.

Washington Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, opened Thursday’s hearing by telling Shou: “Your platform should be banned.”

The US government is once again threatening to ban TikTok. What you should know

Chew used his testimony to stress TikTok’s independence from China and play up its US ties. “TikTok itself is not available in mainland China, we’re headquartered in Los Angeles and Singapore, and we have 7,000 employees in the U.S. today,” he said in his opening remarks.

“Still, we have heard important concerns about the potential for unwanted foreign access to US data and potential manipulation of the TikTok US ecosystem,” Chew said. “Our approach has never been to dismiss or trivialize any of these concerns. We have addressed them with real action.”

Continue reading TikTok CEO in the hot seat: 5 takeaways from his first appearance before US Congress →

Al Jazeera English – 16-3-2023

The US invasion of Iraq kicked off a cycle of violence and instability that persists to this day. #AJStartHere with Sandra Gathmann explains how the invasion set Iraq on a troubled path, and where things stand twenty years later.

How the US invasion shaped Iraq | Start Here

Academic rigour, journalistic flair, The Conversation

A U.S. surveillance drone flies over the USS Coronado in the Pacific Ocean during an April 2021 drill. U.S. Navy/Chief Mass Communication Specialist Shannon Renfroe

Published: March 15, 2023 4.43pm GMT

Author

1. Ashley S. Deeks Professor of Scholarly Research in Law, University of Virginia

Disclosure statement

I worked for the State Department from 1999-2010 and for the National Security Council from 2021-22.

Partners

University of Virginia provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.

View all partners

We believe in the free flow of information

Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under Creative Commons licence.

The details are disputed, but either way the result was the same: On March 14, 2023, a U.S. drone crashed into the Black Sea after an encounter with Russian aircraft.

According to the U.S. version of events, the unarmed MQ-9 surveillance drone was flying in international airspace when two Russian fighter jets dumped fuel on the drone before colliding with it in violation of international law.

Continue reading Downing of US drone in Russian jet encounter prompts counter claims of violations in the sky – an international law expert explores the arguments →

The four-phase plan has made nuclear arms control experts nervous … here’s why

• Aukus: nuclear submarines deal will cost Australia up to $368bn

Ben Doherty and Daniel Hurst, Tue 14 Mar 2023 04.55 GMT The Guardian

Anthony Albanese, Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak announce the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal in San Diego. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/AP

In a tripartite deal with the US and the UK, Australia has unveiled a plan to acquire a fleet of up to eight nuclear-powered submarines, forecast to cost up to $368bn between now and the mid-2050s. Australia will spend $9bn over the next four years.

From this year Australian military and civilian personnel will embed with US and UK navies, including within both countries’ submarine industrial bases. From 2027 the UK and the US plan to rotate their nuclear-powered submarines through HMAS Stirling near Perth as part of a push to step up training of Australians.

Continue reading What is the Aukus submarine deal and what does it mean? – the key facts →

10/03/2023: Transparency International

This week, we at Transparency International faced an unexpected turn as the Russian Federation announced it would designate our organisation as “undesirable”. It claimed that we “interfere in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation, which poses a threat to the foundations of the constitutional order”

. Corruption is an issue that knows no borders. It is the essential mission of Transparency International to call attention to and fight against it everywhere. It is our specific mandate to combat transnational corruption, when deficiencies in one country enable abuses in others – to global detriment.

Daniel Eriksson, CEO of Transparency International Continue reading What’s in a label? →

Critical Questions by Jon B. Alterman, CSIS

Published March 10, 2023

On Friday, March 10, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced their agreement to reestablish diplomatic relations based on talks held in Beijing. China has portrayed itself as the broker of the agreement, and China’s senior diplomat congratulated the two countries on their “wisdom.”

Q1: Why did the two countries reestablish relations now?

A1: The agreement seems to have been moved forward during President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Beijing last month. For months, Saudi Arabia has put pressure on Iran through its reported support for Iran International, a foreign-based Persian-language broadcaster critical of the regime that is received in Iran. Since President Raisi took office in August 2021, he announced it was a priority to reduce tensions with regional neighbors. Saudi Arabia and Iran have had a wide variety of differences throughout the region, often fought through proxies. They span from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq to Yemen. Iran has supplied weapons to Houthi forces in Yemen that have threatened Saudi populations both on the border and in interior areas. Saudi Arabia has been increasingly interested in finding a way to end the conflict in Yemen, and this agreement is likely to move that forward.

Continue reading Why did China help Saudi Arabia and Iran resume diplomatic ties? →