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Cập nhật Tình hình Kinh tế Đông Á – Thái Bình Dương, tháng 10/2014
NGÀY 6 THÁNG 10 NĂM 2014
Việt Nam
Cập nhật Tình hình Kinh tế Đông Á – Thái Bình Dương, tháng 10/2014 Đông Á – Thái Bình Dương vẫn là khu vực tăng trưởng nhanh nhất thế giới, dự báo tăng trưởng đạt mức 6,9% năm 2014. Tuy nhiên, triển vọng kinh tế vẫn còn tồn tại nhiều bất trắc.
Đọc các phát hiện chính của báo cáo
Tải toàn văn báo cáo (Tiếng Anh)
OCTOBER 6, 2014
East Asia Pacific Economic Update, October 2014 Developing East Asia Pacific remains the fastest-growing region in the world, with a growth forecast of 6.9% in 2014. However, significant uncertainties remain.
VIETNAM
Population
89.7 million
Population growth
1.1 percent
GDP (PPP, int’l US$)
474.8 billion
GDP per capita (PPP, int’l US$)
5,293
Surface area
330,957 sq. km.
Capital
Hanoi
Source:
World Development Indicators.
SUMMARY
Vietnam further consolidated macroeconomic
stability in 2014, with continued low inflation and
strengthened external accounts. Slower economic
growth has prompted an easing of monetary policy,
but lending has been constrained by weaknesses
in bank balance sheets and subdued private sector
demand. GDP growth is forecasted to flatten this
year and slightly edge up in 2015, with inflation
remaining in single digits. Regaining growth
momentum, sustaining strong export performance
and FDI inflows, and otherwise strengthening
competitiveness requires intensified efforts to reform
the banking sector and state-owned enterprises,
and to improve the business environment.
Recent Economic Developments
Vietnam has maintained macroeconomic stability,
with easing inflation, strengthening external
accounts, and stable foreign exchange markets.
Headline inflation fell from a peak of 23 percent in
August 2011 to about 4.2 percent in August 2014, as
a result of benign supply-side pressures (especially
on account of soft energy and food prices) and
continuing subdued domestic demand. Stronger
trade and capital accounts on the balance of
payments have enabled foreign exchange reserves
to build up to an import cover of about 3.1 months
in May 2014, up from 2.4 months in December
2013. Recent tensions with China in the East Sea
have added some turmoil in the financial and foreign
exchange markets, although these pressures appear
to be abating. The State Bank of Vietnam adjusted
downward the reference rate for the dong (effective
June 19, 2014) by 1 percent, to 21,246 per dollar,
its first adjustment in 12 months. Macroeconomic
stability has helped Vietnam improve its sovereign
risk ratings despite regional tensions.
Vietnam’s economic growth, however, remains
sluggish and continues to come in below its long-
term potential. Growth picked up at 5.1 percent in
Q1 2014 and 5.25 percent in Q2, remaining well
below the precrisis peak rate of 7 percent. The
economy is projected to grow at 5.4 percent in
2014—the same pace as 2013—before picking up
slightly to 5.5 percent in 2015. In the short run, this
is linked to slow domestic demand. Growth in retail
sales—a proxy for private consumption—eased
to 5.7 percent in real terms in June due to weak
consumer confidence. FDI remained substantial,
but private domestic investment remains dampened
by weak credit growth and low business sentiment.
The share of domestic private investment in GDP
stood at only 10.7 percent in H1 2014, well below the
level of 13.9 percent in 2010. A growing number of
domestically owned businesses have been closing
or suspending operations. Sixty-one thousand firms
closed or suspended business in 2013 compared to
47,000 in 2010; a further 37,600 were added to this
list in the first seven months of 2014—a 10 percent
increase over the same period last year. Difficulties
in finding suitable markets, limited access to
financial resources, and the high costs of inputs for
production were among the main reasons behind
enterprise liquidations or suspensions.
Longer-term growth potential remains hampered
by a web of structural problems in state-owned
enterprises and the banking sector, policy
weaknesses that continue to thwart domestic
private investment and competition in key sectors,
a widening skills gap, constrained access to finance,
and relatively high trade logistics costs.
Although FDI has leveled off in recent months (albeit
at high levels), the foreign-invested sector remains
an important engine of economic development in
Vietnam. By end-July 2014, Vietnam had investments
from more than 100 countries and territories, with
total accumulated FDI commitment of around
US$242 billion in a broad and diversified range of
business activities. The foreign-invested sector
contributes to almost 20 percent of Vietnam’s GDP,
25 percent of total investment, two-thirds of total
exports and, directly and indirectly, millions of jobs.
Foreign investors have generally held a positive view
of Vietnam’s investment climate, appreciating the
country’s political stability, improving macroeconomic
stability, a motivated and educated workforce, and
proximity to Chinese supply chains. Nonetheless,
some key issues need closer attention.
More immediately, this would require assuaging
investor concerns regarding safety and security
arising from the recent riots that followed the East
Sea stand-off with China. Decisive measures by the
Vietnamese government to prevent further rioting
and help victims cope with the recent damage have
been well received by the investor community.
Beyond that, foreign investors’ confidence hinges
on preserving macroeconomic stability, and
accelerating structural reform to create a level playing
field for all enterprises and businesses. More efforts
are also needed to strengthen market mechanisms,
accelerate administrative reforms, and strengthen
human-resource training. Vietnam also needs to
upgrade its infrastructure services, especially in
areas such as transport, ports, and power, which
investors have often cited as constraints.
A widening fiscal deficit presents growing macro
challenges. The deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP
was overshot by 0.5 percentage points in 2013, with
a similar outcome expected in 2014, largely due to
declining tax revenues. In response, the government
is seeking to strengthen tax administration and
broaden the tax base, and to require state-owned
enterprises (SOEs) to pay dividends to the State
Budget. Efforts are also afoot to rein in growth of
recurrent spending and tighten controls over new
capital investment projects. The proposed revisions
to the State Budget Law (expected to be discussed
in the National Assembly in November 2014) offer
important opportunities to further strengthen fiscal
management. The public debt situation remains
sustainable, although susceptible to systemic
shocks—such as lower GDP growth, recapitalization
of banks by the government, or fiscal costs arising
from accelerated SOE restructuring.
Despite high labor force participation and a low
official unemployment rate, labor market trends
give some cause for concern. In particular, the
unemployment rate is considerably higher among
skilled workers, reflecting a skills gap that is acute
among applicants for jobs in technical, professional,
and managerial occupations. Employers continue to
report availability of skilled workers as a more severe
binding constraint than labor market regulations or
taxes. Moreover, in 2013, 63 percent of workers
were in the informal sector, a majority of them
women.
The banking sector is tenuously stable. With a
focus on addressing NPLs, banks remain cautious
in expanding lending despite strong growth in
deposits. Authorities have successfully tackled
short-run liquidity pressures, but structural reforms
to address more fundamental weaknesses (related
to poor asset quality, inadequate capital, and weak
governance) have moved at a slow pace. The
central bank’s Circular 02, on loan classification and
provisioning, is a step in the right direction, but its
full enforcement has been delayed until April 2015.
The Vietnam Asset Management Company has
assumed a growing share of bad assets, but is yet to
develop a clear strategy to resolve them. Progress
is partially hampered by gaps in the existing State
Bank of Vietnam regulation and the corporate
restructuring framework. Although the cap for total
foreign holdings remains unchanged at 30 percent
(consistent with Vietnam’s World Trade Organization
commitments), Decree 01, issued in January 2014,
now allows higher ownership in special cases
subject to prime ministerial approval. The State Bank
of Vietnam has targeted six to seven mergers and
acquisitions in the banking sector in 2014, and a
50 percent reduction in the number of commercial
banks in the next three years.
The pace of SOE reforms appears to have picked
up. The recently issued Resolution 15 contains
a comprehensive action plan to step up SOE
divestment. Two related laws—on Management
of State Capital Invested in Enterprises and on the
Enterprise Law—are expected to be approved by
end-2014. The government equitized 74 SOEs in
2013 (triple the number in 2011 and 2012), and the
momentum continued in 2014. By the end of June
2014, about 40 enterprises were equitized, and the
evaluation of enterprise values has been conducted
for another 160 SOEs. A new feature of the recent
equitization process is that it increasingly involves
large SOEs such as Vietnam Airlines and Vietnam
Textiles & Garments. Some progress has been made
against Decree 71, requiring all nonbank SOEs to fully
divest from five noncore risky areas by 2015. Future
progress will require strengthened information
disclosure, performance monitoring, and corporate
governance; transparency of the divestment
process; and clearer lines of accountability in SOE
oversight.
Outlook and Emerging Challenges
Economic growth remains moderate and continues
to come in below its potential. GDP growth,
estimated at 5.4 percent in 2014, is projected not to
exceed 5.5 percent before 2016. In the short run, this
is linked to weakness in domestic demand. Longer-
term (or trend) growth remains subdued due to a
web of structural problems in SOEs and the banking
sector, policy distortions that continue to thwart
domestic private investment, skills shortages, and
gaps in infrastructure and trade logistical services.
Nonetheless, the improved global prospects bode
well for Vietnam, given its close trade and investment
linkages with the global economy.
The medium-term outlook presents the following
potential macroeconomic risks: (a) domestic private
sector demand remains sluggish and susceptible
to negative news; (b) with elevated NPL ratios and
balance sheet positions intertwined with the SOE
sector, the banking sector remains susceptible
to sudden shifts in depositor confidence and
unexpected news on SOE performance or asset
price movements. Restructuring and reform of the
SOEs and the financial sector should help Vietnam
return to a more sustainable macroeconomic
environment while laying the foundation for greater
efficiency and productivity to drive medium- and
longer-term growth; and (c) prolonged tensions
over territorial disputes present risks to the baseline
growth forecast.
WORLD BANK
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE
OCTOBER 2014
Đọt Chuối Non 