JULY 14, 2022 | FP Situation Report

By Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep!

Before we get to our regularly scheduled programming, if you haven’t done so already, take a few minutes to marvel at the new high-definition imagery coming out of deep space, courtesy of the James Webb telescope.Alright, back to more earthly matters, here’s what’s on tap for the day: How South Korea is becoming a top global arms exporter, a new report warns of laggard U.S. missile defense capabilities, and Congress sours on F-16 sales to Turkey.

The Business of Booms Is Booming in South Korea

There’s been a not-so-quiet revolution taking place in South Korea in recent years, and it’s all about the defense industry.Since former President Moon Jae-in first took power in 2017, South Korea has turbocharged its arms sales abroad, positioning the country to become one of the world’s leading arms exporters and vastly outpacing the rest of the world in increasing the volume of its arms exports. Under the new conservative government, led by Yoon Suk-yeol, that trend shows no signs of slowing down.
Continue reading How South Korea is transforming into a top global arms exporter →

The military relies on advanced semiconductors. The U.S. doesn’t make any.

By David Leonhardt

NYTimes – July 14, 2022

The most advanced category of mass-produced semiconductors — used in smartphones, military technology and much more — is known as 5 nm. A single company in Taiwan, known as TSMC, makes about 90 percent of them. U.S. factories make none.

The U.S.’s struggles to keep pace in semiconductor manufacturing have already had economic downsides: Many jobs in the industry pay more than $100,000 a year, and the U.S. has lost out on them. Longer term, the situation also has the potential to cause a national security crisis: If China were to invade Taiwan and cut off exports of semiconductors, the American military would be at risk of being overmatched by its main rival for global supremacy.

Continue reading The semiconductor problem →

HONG KONG’S SUBDIVIDED UNITS (Part 1) SCMP

‘Like a caged animal’: why Hongkongers in city’s notorious subdivided flats say they have no choice

By Fiona SunPublished June 8, 2022

Hong Kong’s poor and destitute have long been unable to afford anything but subdivided living spaces. Now Beijing wants the local government to rid the city of these tiny units and “cage homes” by 2049. John Lee Ka-chiu, who will be sworn in as the city’s next leader on the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule on July 1, has pledged to resolve housing woes. In the first of a three-part series, Fiona Sun looks at the city’s worst homes and speaks to the people living in them. Read Part 2 here and Part 3 here.

After a long night shift, security guard Leung returns to the tiny space he calls home in an old residential building in Sham Shui Po.

Continue reading Life in Hong Kong’s shoebox housing (3 parts) →

Allies and rivals are striking new deals while the U.S. loses ground.

WSJ – By The Editorial Board

Updated July 5, 2022 7:16 pm ET

Listen here

The news leaking from the White House is that President Biden may finally ease tariffs against some Chinese goods—a mere 18 months into his Administration. The extended indecision underscores that Mr. Biden essentially has no trade policy while the rest of the world moves ahead with new trade deals.

Continue reading Biden’s missing trade policy →

25 years after taking control of the territory, how is Beijing trying to change Hong Kong — and how is Hong Kong pushing back?

Nikkei staff writersJuly 2, 2022 07:23 JST

Nikkei

NEW YORK — Welcome to Nikkei Asia’s podcast: Asia Stream.

Every other week, Asia Stream tracks and analyzes the Indo-Pacific with a mix of expert interviews and original reporting by our correspondents from across the globe.

https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6Ub8j110SaXucm0YuVEaFc?utm_source=generator&theme=0

Listen on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube

This episode, we take measure of the economic impact of China’s stringent laws in Hong Kong and then take a deep dive into the social and political costs of Beijing’s crackdown on the special administrative region.

Continue reading Asia Stream: the struggle for Hong Kong’s identity →

CNN

Chinese flags flutter above streets and red celebratory banners line the harbor front, as a beaming crowd of masked officials and school children wave and chant in unison inside Hong Kong’s high-speed rail terminus, welcoming the arrival of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. 

In his first trip outside mainland China since the start of the pandemic, Xi arrived in Hong Kong Thursday to mark the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese rule on July 1 — a highly symbolic event at a pivotal time for both the city, and Xi himself. 
Continue reading Xi Jinping brought Hong Kong to heel. Now he’s back in a city transformed  →

Thứ tư, 29/6/2022, 10:37 (GMT+7) vnexpress

Được đầu tư vốn lớn cùng làn đường riêng, tuyến BRT đầu tiên của Hà Nội chưa thu hút được người dân, không giảm ùn tắc và thúc đẩy giao thông công cộng.

Tuyến BRT Kim Mã – Yên Nghĩa được phê duyệt từ năm 2007 với tổng vốn đầu tư khoảng 55 triệu USD, tương đương 1.100 tỷ đồng. Ngày 1/1/2017, tuyến bắt đầu hoạt động theo lộ trình Yên Nghĩa – Ba La – Lê Trọng Tấn – Tố Hữu – Lê Văn Lương – Láng Hạ – Giảng Võ – bến xe Kim Mã. Người dân di chuyển toàn tuyến dài 14,77 km sẽ mất khoảng 45 phút.

Dự án được thực hiện bằng vốn vay của Ngân hàng Thế giới (WB). Đây là hợp phần trong lộ trình dài hơi phát triển giao thông công cộng Hà Nội mà WB tham gia. Cơ quan này đưa ra nhiều mục tiêu khi xây dựng tuyến buýt nhanh, như cải thiện tình trạng ùn tắc, ô nhiễm; làm nền tảng phát triển hạ tầng giao thông công cộng; thúc đẩy người dân chuyển từ xe cá nhân sang phương tiện công cộng.

Continue reading Sáu năm hoạt động của tuyến BRT Hà Nội →

Posted Fri 24 Jun 2022 at 9:06amFriday 24 Jun 2022 at 9:06am

abc.net.au

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Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister says the island nation’s debt-laden economy has “collapsed” as it runs out of money to pay for food and fuel.

Short of cash to pay for imports of such necessities and already defaulting on its debt, the country is seeking help from neighbouring India and China and from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took office in May, has emphasised the monumental task he faces in turning around an economy he said was headed for “rock bottom”. Continue reading How the Sri Lankan economy run out of money to pay for food and fuel →

SCMP

 Andrew MullenDeputy Editor, Political Economy 25 June 2022

Dear Global Impact Readers, 

Space, they say, is the final frontier. But how far does that frontier go and what’s out there? 

China, has in recent years, accelerated all things space as part of its busy science programme we recapped a few weeks ago, from landing a rover on Mars to nearing completion of its Tiangong space station.

In this issue, the SCMP’s Stephen Chen, the news editor for science with our China desk, is back to look at China’s exploits and gaze into what the future holds for its ambitious space programme.  Continue reading China jettisons underdog tag to become space force →

Photo credit: YashSD / Shutterstock.com

JUNE 21, 2022 gmfus.org

by Garima Mohan, Kristi Govella

DOWNLOAD PDF

Summary

The Quadrilateral grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States (the Quad) has come a long way from its origins, establishing itself as a crucial pillar of the Indo-Pacific regional architecture and significantly shifting in tone and focus from its early iterations. Since its revival in 2017, the Quad has been elevated to a leader-level dialogue, it has begun issuing joint statements, and it has developed a new working-group structure to facilitate cooperation. It has also significantly broadened and deepened its agenda to include vaccines, climate change, critical and emerging technologies, infrastructure, cyber, and space.

These recent changes to the Quad raise several questions about its future trajectory. What are the drivers of engagement, the domestic support, and the bureaucratic capacity in the four countries to continue investing in the Quad?  How well does the Quad’s new working-group structure function, and will the working groups be able to deliver tangible results? How has the Quad’s agenda evolved, and will it return to its initial focus on security challenges? Are the Quad countries open to cooperation with additional countries and, if so, what form will this take?

This paper analyzes these questions drawing on recent publications, official statements, and interviews with key experts and policymakers in the four countries. In doing so, it offers five key takeaways into the Quad as an evolving part of the Indo-Pacific architecture, as well as a vehicle for achieving the goals of its four member countries.

Since its revival in 2017, the Quad has been elevated to a leader-level dialogue, it has begun issuing joint statements, and it has developed a new working-group structure to facilitate cooperation

First, in terms of institutionalization and internal goals, there is little interest among the member countries in further institutionalizing the Quad by establishing a secretariat or adopting a charter. All four consider the flexible nature of the grouping to be an asset. At the same time, the Quad partners have increased their alignment on strategic issues and aim to continue doing so in the near future by solidifying ties within the grouping.

Continue reading The Future of the Quad and the Emerging Architecture in the Indo-Pacific →

foreignpolicy.com – JUNE 16, 2022, 5:00 PM

This week brought news that the health of two former South Asian leaders has taken a turn for the worse. Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who ruled the country as a military dictator for nearly a decade in the 2000s, is hospitalized with a rare and incurable disease that causes organ damage. In Bangladesh, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who served two separate terms, had a heart attack.

That many South Asian leaders have reached old age speaks to the relative improvement in the region’s political stability, after decades when executions by coup or assassinations were not uncommon in some countries. Former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have each recently experienced health issues. India lost one former prime minister in 2018, and Pakistan has lost two former leaders since 2020.

Continue reading As one political generation fades, who will take their place? →

Home » Security and Economic Challenges for Taiwan in Cross-Strait Relations

Security and Economic Challenges for Taiwan in Cross-Strait Relations

• March 31, 2022 China Research Center
• Chien-Pin Li.

Chien-pin Li is Professor of Political Science and Dean of the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Sam Houston State University. Before his current position, he taught at Kennesaw State University for 26 years, and was a founding member of the China Research Center. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Iowa and was an Associate Research Fellow at Academia Sinica (Taipei, Taiwan), a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States (Washington, D.C.) and a Research Fellow at the Pacific Cultural Foundation (Taipei, Taiwan). His teaching and research interests focus on East Asian political economy, including trade disputes, trade negotiations, and regional integration. He is the author of Rising East Asia: The Quest for Governance, Prosperity, and Security (2020) and has published articles in Asian Survey, Pacific Review, Issues & Studies, International Studies Quarterly, and other journals. 

More articles by the Author »

The security and economic landscape in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly difficult to navigate. While trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership signal an interest to cooperate in a region full of economic vibrancy, competition and rivalry between great powers cast significant uncertainty over the peace and stability in the region. The paradoxical trends in economic and security affairs are particularly evident in cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and China.

Continue reading Security and Economic Challenges for Taiwan in Cross-Strait Relations →

By Raul “Pete” PedrozoTuesday, September 29, 2020, 9:16 AM lawfareblog

A view of Taiwan’s Kaohsiung Harbor, which faces the Taiwan Strait. (Flick/Formosa Wandering, https://flic.kr/p/9aCnHR; CC BY-NC 2.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/)

Captain Raul (Pete) Pedrozo, U.S. Navy (Ret.), is the Howard S. Levie Chair on the Law of Armed Conflict and Professor of International Law in the Stockton Center for International Law at the U.S. Naval War College. He was a Peer Reviewer for the International Committee of the Red Cross Commentary of 2017 on the Convention (II) for the Amelioration of the Condition of Wounded, Sick and Shipwrecked Members Of the Armed Forces at Sea (1949) and is currently one of two U.S. representative to the International Group of Experts for the San Remo Manual on the Law Applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea, produced by the International Institute of Humanitarian Law. Prior to his retirement from the Navy he served as the senior legal advisor to Commander, U.S. Pacific Command and was a Special Assistant to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense. Pedrozo is co-author of the forthcoming, “Emerging Technology and the Law of the Sea” (Oxford University Press).

________

On Sept. 18 and 19, People’s Liberation Army combat aircraft on 40 occasions intentionally crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait that separates mainland China from the island of Taiwan. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen immediately condemned the provocation as a “threat of force.”

The center line in the Taiwan Strait (also known as the median line, middle line or Davis Line, named after Brig. Gen. Benjamin Davis, commander of Task Force 13 in Taipei and famed commander of the World War II Tuskegee Airmen) has its origins in the 1954 U.S.-Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty. The treaty was one link in the chain of U.S. collective defense arrangements in the Western Pacific—which included agreements with the Republic of the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the Republic of Korea—designed to resist further communist subversive activities directed against their territorial integrity and political stability. Pursuant to Article V of the Mutual Defense Treaty, an armed attack in the treaty area, which included Taiwan and the Pescadores (or Penghu) Islands, directed against the territory of either party would be considered a danger “to its own peace and safety” and each party “would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.” An addendum to the treaty established a buffer zone into which U.S. aircraft were not allowed to enter.

Continue reading China’s Threat of Force in the Taiwan Strait →

 

June 10, 2022 Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President for Economics, CSIS

 

Responding to widespread criticism of the Biden administration’s paltry offer of funding for Southeast Asian partners at a recent summit, a wise friend offered a colorful metaphor: “If we’re dating and I sense that you’re being transactional, then I want you to take me to the best restaurant in town and get the priciest bottle of wine. If you want a long-term relationship, buy me a cheap bottle of Chianti and we can sit on the roof and watch the sunset.”

My friend is right: no amount of money will win hearts and minds in the vital Indo-Pacific region unless it comes with a credible demonstration of long-term commitment to the region.

Continue reading A Transactional Mindset Won’t Win in the Indo-Pacific →

The Joe Biden administration has unveiled its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, but it doesn’t look like a traditional trade deal and could end up falling short of its ambitions.  

Article by Inu Manak, Council on Foreign Relations

Last updated June 8, 2022 3:39 pm (EST)

In late May, the Joe Biden administration launched its first major trade initiative: the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). The IPEF is billed as an effort to expand U.S. economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific region. This was also the objective of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal that was negotiated during the Barack Obama administration. But President Donald Trump withdrew from the TPP in 2017, and the Biden administration has made clear that it does not intend to reenter that trade pact, which is now renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP.

Continue reading Unpacking the IPEF: Biden’s First Big Trade Play →